How will MCA fare in this coming election? — Lee Hwa Beng

MARCH 19 — In the last general election, the MCA fielded candidates in 40 parliamentary seats but won only 15 and lost the remaining 25 seats to the opposition in the political tsunami. This was by far the worst result ever for the MCA. 

Will the MCA be able to retain and perhaps increase the existing 15 seats, or will its position be further weakened?

Two years ago, MCA president Chua Soi Lek announced that the MCA will not accept any Cabinet positions if the party obtains fewer than the existing 15 seats. This statement was made nearly two years ago when he first became MCA president but has not been repeated since. 

Was he trying to blackmail the Chinese community into considering carefully before voting against the party? Was he more confident of a better performance then? His subsequent silence may mean he has either regretted his statement or that he is less confident of his party’s performance in the upcoming elections two years later. 

According to the chart in this article, out of the 15 seats won by the MCA, only four seats have a majority, i.e. more than 50 per cent of Chinese voters — Kampar, Kluang, Gelang Patah and Kulai. Two other seats have marginally more Chinese than Malay voters i.e. Bentong and Labis. This shows that the MCA won these 15 seats with more support from the Malay community than the Chinese. Furthermore, out of the 15 seats, seven were won from the DAP, six from PKR and two from PAS. Interestingly enough, the other 25 seats where MCA lost were all Chinese plurality seats.

How then will the MCA fare in the 13th general election? Having exited the political arena, I will attempt to answer this objectively in spite of the fact that I was an MCA leader and also a victim of the political tsunami in 2008.

In general, most people think the MCA will obtain fewer than the 15 seats it garnered in 2008. As to the extent of the loss, this will depend on the following crucial factors that will decide the MCA’s fate:

1) The increase of the number of voters in the electoral roll will be a decisive factor. Generally these new additions are young, first-time voters who are anti-establishment and will normally vote against the incumbents. In other words, they will not be voting in favour of the MCA.

2) Out of the 15 seats won by the MCA, seven are located in Johor. Pakatan Rakyat has declared Johor as its frontline battle state in its plan to capture Putrajaya. Hence it will definitely concentrate on the seven MCA seats and also the sole MIC seat (Segamat) in the state. They will also be led by heavyweights like Salahuddin Ayub, one of the three vice-presidents of PAS and current MP for Kubang Kerian, Chua Jui Meng, also a PKR vice-president and former Bakri MP, and very likely Lim Kit Siang himself, who will move from Perak to Johor, the state where he was born. Another DAP central executive committee member and national leader, Liew Ching Tong, has already announced his intention to move from Penang.

3) Will Chor Chee Heung, who won marginally by 184 votes in Alor Star, and Kong Cho Ha with 298 votes be able to retain their seats ? Alor Star and Lumut have many more Malay voters than Chinese. In the last elections slightly more than 50 per cent Malays voted for the MCA/BN across the country. A slight decrease in Malay votes will make these two seats vulnerable. This potential decrease in Malay sentiment for BN will inevitably impact all the seats contested by the MCA that have more than 40 per cent Malay voters as nobody can deny that Chinese support for the MCA and BN is worse now compared to the last elections.

4) Of the 15 incumbents, at least five to eight will either be dropped by the MCA or will retire. Who will be replacing them? Will winnable candidates be fielded or will only the president’s men prevail? Chua Soi Lek has announced that Ong Tee Keat, a winnable candidate and current Pandan MP, will be dropped. Will Najib over-rule Soi Lek and retain Tee Keat? Ong Ka Ting, who won with a majority of 14,895 votes, has declared a few times that he is stepping down from his seat in Kulai. His successor would be hard pressed to retain this 59 per cent Chinese-majority seat. Ong Ka Chuan, Ka Ting’s older brother, will win in Tanjung Malim if he stands again. But will he be retained knowing the bad blood between Soi Lek and the Ong brothers?

5) Will Ng Yen Yen be able to retain her Raub seat after the Bukit Koman cyanide poisoning issue, the Psy “lou sang” incident and “Yes No Yes No” episode in Malacca?

6) How will Liow Tiong Lai fare against Himpunan Hijau’s Wong Tak standing on a DAP ticket? Will the change of candidate from a PKR to DAP one have any effect in this 47 per cent Chinese-majority seat?

7) Will the ongoing PKFZ trial of former MCA president Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik have any effect on all the MCA candidates? In particular, will it impact Kong Cho Ha who replaced Ong Tee Keat as transport minister?

8) Finally the key question: Will Soi Lek stand in this coming elections? If he stands, which seat will he choose? Will his sex scandal affect him only or have repercussions on all the MCA candidates? Without a doubt, all Pakatan candidates who are standing against Soi Lek and other MCA members will liberally remind voters of this sex scandal.

Pakatan knows MCA candidates will be the most vulnerable and hence will capitalise on this in its aim to win the election. They also know the DAP will be their best weapon to take down MCA candidates.

Hence, the Bentong seat that was previously contested by PKR was given to the DAP. Chua Jui Meng’s request to contest in his hometown and previous seat in Bakri when he was still a member of the MCA was also not considered and has been retained as the DAP’s. Lim Kit Siang recently announced Gelang Patah, a Chinese-majority seat, will be contested by the DAP although it was a PKR seat in the last election.

I am convinced that Pakatan will give seats to the DAP in whichever area it has a better chance to win.

In conclusion, while it would not be appropriate for me to pinpoint exactly which seats the MCA will retain or lose, I estimate that MCA will obtain somewhere between 5-10 seats out of these 15 seats.

In my next article, I will look into how the MCA will fare in the 25 seats it lost.

* Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is the former MCA state assemblyman for Subang Jaya (three terms from 1995-2008). Stood as the BN candidate for the Kelana Jaya parliamentary seat in 2008 and lost. Appointed Port Klang Authority chairman to investigate the PKFZ scandal from 2008 to 2011 and the author of “PKFZ: A Nation’s Trust Betrayed.”

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sideviews/article/how-will-mca-fare-in-this-coming-election-lee-hwa-beng/

朝野逐鹿金宝4席 民联派精兵挽民心

（金宝5日讯）隨著全国大选的跫音近，朝野政党即將角逐金宝1国3州议席的候选人也逐渐明朗，目前除了朝野政党的克兰芝州席仍传出有其他人选以外，其余的朝野国州席候选人，几乎已经断定。

因此，在朝野准候选人在不同选区的走动趋势下，选民已看出端倪，並相信民联在来届大选极大可能將派出3名法律系出身的政坛新兵，强攻勤于服务的国阵候选人。

据悉，国阵在金宝国会选区下的3个州议席，于308大选时，在反风狂吹的情况下，饶幸地守住金宝国席及督亚冷锡加州席，但却痛失马华中选3届的双溪古月州选区。

惟事后，前行动党双溪古月州议员吉舒荣特星宣布退党，成为支持国阵的独立议员，导致行动党于金宝选区的组织及形象受挫。因此，据悉民联在来届大选料將派出3名拥有法律系学士资格的专业人士，以挽回民心。

目前，依民联內部所传出口风进行分析，在308大选以高票卫冕克兰芝州席的曾福仔料继续守土，而行动党及公正党將派出陈贞源、梁卓经及宝迪星，上阵金宝国席、双溪古月州席及督亚冷锡加州席。

国阵方面，贵为內政部副部长的拿督李志亮，逢週五即定时前往金宝市区设立柜檯，勤于服务选民，並获民眾冠上「街头部长」的称號，所以在其功绩有目共睹的情况下，料其他国阵领袖也不敢打其金宝国席的主意。

因此，近期才开始在金宝选区跑动的行动党金宝服务小组协调员陈贞源，若欲挑战李志亮，绝非易事，毕竟陈贞源只有27岁，年纪尚轻，並且不諳华语、广东及客家话等方言，难以取得金宝老一代选民的支持。

但是，拥有专业形象的陈贞源也並非完全没有优势，皆因他出身豪门，是森州知名商人陈昌的曾孙，並出动行动党前金宝国会议员黄永安助阵，將吸引「反」心迫切的年轻选民，所以陈贞源对上李志亮，料將引起金宝老轻选民的对决。

此外，支持国阵独立州议员吉舒荣特星，因退党事宜严重的影响其形象，朝野人士一致认为其代表国阵出征双溪古月州选区机会渺茫，该州席將保留给马华金宝区会署理主席张国强竞选。

內斗分配不均

据知情者披露，原本已准备在308大选披甲上阵的张国强，却因党內派系斗爭，导致竞选席位分配不均，迫于將服务多年的选区拱手相让，所以李志亮此次已向首相及马华总会长力爭其出线机会。

因此，极大可能將与张国强爭夺双溪古月州席的行动党双溪古月服务队主席梁卓经，其律师形象良好，出线机会深得反对党支持者的认同，目前只在部署著最后的竞选策略。

至于，拥有庞大巫裔选民的督亚冷锡加州选区，国阵估计將继续派出现任州议员诺丽守土，以迎接公正党宝迪星的挑战，惟外人一般看好诺丽能替国阵保住此席位，除非该区的诺丽敌对巫统派系扯后腿。

天兵友党插一脚　克兰芝生变

朝野政党于金宝克兰芝州选区的准候选人，至今仍存有一定变数，目前积极服务的朝野准候选人，可能將分別面对「天兵下降」及友党候选人代为出阵的局面。

民间传出，过去2届全国大选，马华于克兰芝州选区屡战屡败，因此，在首相拿督斯里纳吉所推行「胜算高者上阵策略」下，巫统区部建议马华金宝区会让出该州议席，由声望较高金宝民政区部主席拿督朱树濯上阵。

惟金宝马华区会主席拿督李志亮却有意力保该党的出线该区机会，向选民强力推荐其年轻助理胡伟豪，並在他无法出席的活动上，都让胡伟豪代为出席。因此，马华若是继续角逐克兰芝州席，胡伟豪的机会算是最高。

虽然，民间数度传出金宝民政已在克兰芝选区物色大选行动中心的言论，但民政基层领袖认为，该党区部主席竞选克兰芝州席的意愿不大，而且金宝民政党区部至今仍未获上层指示进行部署，即使是获得出线机会，胜算也不高。

此外，于308大选成功保住克兰芝州议席的曾福仔表示，有信心继续获得党中央的信任，以卫冕克兰芝州席，为民联「改朝换代」的目標而尽力，但若是最终候选人不是他，他也会尊重党的决定，全力支持该党候选人。

但是，行动党內部却传出，行动党在来届大选將大打「专业人士」牌，因此只有中学学歷的曾福仔將可能被取代，而民间也数度传出，代替曾福仔出线的可能会是「女天兵」。

Source: http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=45215:4&Itemid=242

率亲信守金宝1国2州 李志亮对垒民行新兵

独家报导

　（金宝28日讯）来届大选，金宝1国3州议席，预料將由马华现任国会议员李志亮及其亲信，迎战来势汹汹的行动党专业新兵和“脚车老將”。

　金宝国会属下共有3个州选区，分別是双溪古月、加兰芝和督亚冷锡加。308大选时，国会选区由李志亮以2697张多数票胜出，除了督亚冷锡加州席由巫统胜出，双溪古月和加兰芝州选区皆落入行动党候选人手中。

　李志亮也是內政部副部长。他在来届大选中，预料受到行动党新兵陈贞源单挑，而于2009年退出行动党，支持国阵的双溪古月区州议员吉舒荣特星，不再上阵。

　一直追隨李志亮左右的马华金宝区会老將张国强，將受命上阵双溪古月州选区，迎战行动党新兵梁卓经。

　尽管上述1国1州席是由马华老將迎战行动党的新兵，但马华极可能派出新人胡伟豪在加兰芝州选区，单挑素有“脚车议员”之称的曾福仔。

诺丽守土督亚冷锡加

　虽早前有传闻指曾福仔基于个人学歷未达专业人士的要求，有可能不再受委派上阵，可是在求胜大前提下，已2度中选及作风亲民的曾福仔，可能再度受命守土。

　曾福仔在308大选中，以4435张多数票，击败获4024张票的马华的章文华。

　另一州议席督亚冷锡加，则是巫统堡垒区，相信仍由现任议员诺丽出征守土，迎战人民公正党的新兵宝迪星。

　诺丽在上届大选中，以1569张多数票击败公正党的印裔候选人纳拉拉惹。

双溪古月料没三角战

亲国阵的双溪古月区州议员吉舒荣特星，基于曾退党及现无党派的尷尬面局下，预料不会以独立人士身分上阵，因此，该州席將不会出现三角混战。

　若无意外，预料將由同是初试啼声的马华现任加兰芝州选区协调员张国强，直接对垒民主行动党双溪古月服务队主席梁卓经。

　现年54岁的张国强，也是马华金宝区会署理主席，追隨李志亮多年的他，一直勤于跑动金宝区，从未间断。

　反观行动党的专业新兵梁卓经，现年44岁的他，为执业律师，于2008年加入行动党，自上届大选后，一直活跃于双溪古月区。他最广为人知的是一直参与霹州政权转移期间的法庭诉讼。

“街头部长”老树盘根

確確实实为民服务的李志亮，贏得“街头部长”的外號！

　在金宝可谓是老树盘根的李志亮，除了形象亲民与无爭议性，也一直致力发展金宝区，为金宝子民带来诸多实惠计划。

　现年55岁的李志亮，经歷308政治海啸时，適逢已连任4届州议员的他，弃州攻国，尽管当时反风炽盛，但他仍以2697多数票击败行动党的龚明勛，受委为內政部副部长。

　他充分运用其副部长职权，改善金宝软硬体措施，並于每週五在巴剎旁的服务柜台为民服务，因此被民眾称为“街头部长”。

　从政逾20年的李志亮，在1990年中选为督亚冷州议员，之后在1995年中选成为双溪古月区州议员，过后于1999年和2004年的大选皆中选，並在2008年弃州攻国。

陈贞源矢爭取更大民主

现年27岁的陈贞源深信，可通过民主行动党落实对国家爭取更大的民主，以及为各界层人士建立更亲民与惠民政府的承诺。

　出生于新加坡的他，在2007年毕业于英国诺丁汉大学法律系，並于同年回国，在制造和包装环保產品公司担任產品出口行政人员，目前是该公司的高级经理，负责各类环保或绿色產品的出口和市场开发。

　陈贞源对国內外的政治、经济和社会课题有浓厚兴趣，在2008年加入民主行动党，目前是金宝服务小组协调员，近期开始活跃于金宝区，如出席一些政治讲座会及新春团拜等。

曾福仔若守土
遇新兵胡伟豪

有“脚车撞倒马赛地”之说而贏获“脚车议员”雅號的议员曾福仔，若再次受命捍卫加兰芝州选区，可能会遇上马华新兵胡伟豪！

　现年25岁的胡伟豪，自毕业于国民大学经济系后，于2010年开始担任內政部副部长李志亮的特別助理，在金宝活动已將近3年，近期更频频代表未克出席的李志亮，出席金宝区各场合的晚宴。

　出生于彭亨州文冬的胡伟豪，虽非土生土长，但其母亲出生于金宝，而母系亲人更一直居住于双溪古月，故可称得上是半个金宝人。

　已连接2届中选为该区议员的曾福仔，于2004年大选击退马华的拿督张华医生，並于2008年大选以4435多数票轻取马华的章文华。之前一直骑脚车跑动选区的他，因此贏得脚车议员的外號，而于2004年大选时，骑脚车的他在击退当时驾豪华房车的张华医生时，也令当地传出“脚车撞倒马赛地”之说。

李志亮为金宝区所爭取的主要发展

　1）金宝新街场通往督亚冷大道。

　2）金宝新医院。

　3）火车站安装升降机，方便残障人士到对岸乘搭火车。

　4）在金宝大学城增设移民局。

　5）將旧的登记局搬迁至大学城区。

　6）重建破旧的东兴港巴剎。

　7）爭取拨款维修金宝县內多个巴剎。

Source: http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/399075